Defending champion Sabalenka extends US Open winning streak with win over Rakhimova

Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1 and defending US Open champion, could not have asked for a more perfect Sunday morning on Louis Armstrong Stadium. She defeated Kamilla Rakhimova, the Russian ranked 92nd in the world, 6-2, 6-2, to advance to the fourth round. This victory is not merely a third-round match; it is a declaration of intent to win a third consecutive title, something last achieved by legendary Serena Williams more than a decade ago. From the very first game, Sabalenka demonstrated the difference in class. With her powerful serve and heavy forehand, she quickly broke in the third game and completely controlled the opening set. Rakhimova, despite trying to resist, was overwhelmed by the speed and power from the Belarusian. Sabalenka lost just four points on her first serve in the first set, with a total of four aces, a statistic reflecting her excellent serving ability – her most lethal weapon. In the second set, things began to get tougher. Rakhimova, seemingly relieved after losing the set, started hitting deeper and more aggressively on returns. She repeatedly dragged Sabalenka into long rallies, forcing the world No. 1 to work harder in her service games. However, Sabalenka's class showed at crucial moments. At 3-2, she produced a blistering return to secure the decisive break, before closing out the match 6-2. This result extends Sabalenka's impressive winning streak at Flushing Meadows to 16 matches – a feat no female player in the Open Era has matched since Serena Williams. Notably, she has reached the final three consecutive years here, winning the last two, and now stands a chance to become the first woman since Serena (2026-2026) to lift the trophy three times in a row. However, behind this somewhat comfortable victory lie issues that experts are concerned about. Sabalenka entered the tournament in less-than-convincing form, having won just 17 of 24 matches since April, according to Reuters data. This led many pundits, including former player Mary Joe Fernandez of ESPN, to suggest her title defense is 'on shaky ground.' But the win over Rakhimova, though not overly difficult, partly shows that Sabalenka is still herself in New York. The most concerning aspect of this match was her ability to convert break points. Sabalenka converted only 2 of 7 break points – a rather low efficiency compared to her standards. If she faces stronger opponents in later rounds, missing such opportunities could cost her sets. Conversely, her serving remains a solid anchor. She lost just four points on serve in the first set and recorded four aces in the match – though according to NewsBytes stats, the ace count was as high as 10, although this needs verification. Another highlight was Rakhimova's adaptation in the second set. Her opponent changed tactics, playing more aggressively, forcing the top seed to move more. This shows that opponents are finding better ways to counter Sabalenka's power. In later rounds, against players with strong returns like Elena Rybakina or Coco Gauff, having her serve neutralized could become a real problem. Off the court, a minor incident was also noted: a smell of cannabis wafting through the stands caused a brief pause in the second set. Chair umpire Eva Asderaki-Moore handled the situation professionally, and play quickly resumed. This is a rare occurrence but did not affect the players' focus. After the match, Sabalenka said: 'This is the first time I play a morning session at the US Open. It's a new experience, but I'm happy I closed this match in two sets.' She also spoke about the feeling of playing in front of a full stadium, something she called 'a dream.' Sabalenka's relaxed demeanor shows she is managing expectations well. However, the biggest story at the moment remains off the court. According to several reports, Sabalenka, along with Coco Gauff and Serena Williams, is under investigation by the ITIA – the International Tennis Integrity Agency – for a possible rules breach related to a pre-tournament party. This information, though not officially confirmed, has raised concerns about the world No. 1's focus during her title defense. If the investigation becomes serious, it could significantly impact her mental state and performance. From a tactical standpoint, our analysis shows that Sabalenka's US Open winning streak is built on a solid foundation: dominance in service games. She often secures an early break in the first set and then protects her lead with unreturnable serves. However, her break point conversion rate of just 28% in this match is a minus. In a context where opponents are getting stronger, improving her chance conversion is essential if she wants to complete the hat-trick. Another issue is the rise of potential challengers. Wimbledon and French Open champion Elena Rybakina, despite an Achilles injury concern, remains a formidable threat. Home favorite Coco Gauff also looks in impressive form. And notably, the threat from young player Diana Shnaider, who beat Sabalenka at the French Open quarter-finals this year, looms large. If both advance deep, a rematch could happen at the US Open – a real test of Sabalenka's dominance in New York. Interestingly, Sabalenka's US Open winning streak is not accidental. It is the result of a playing style built on power and precision, combined with excellent court reading. As analyst Rick Macci put it, 'Sabalenka is competing against herself.' This means her biggest challenge comes from mental consistency and maintaining her level match after match, rather than from any specific opponent. Looking at the broader picture, while Sabalenka has not been truly outstanding since April, her performances at the US Open remain a different story. She needed just 54 minutes to beat Iatcenko 6-1, 6-1 in the second round, and the match against Rakhimova also ended in two quick sets. In total, Sabalenka has dropped only four games in the tournament so far. From a tactical angle, her greatest strength remains her first serve. Against Rakhimova, she won 92% of points on her first serve (according to various stats). This helps her always keep the advantage in service games and put pressure on opponents. Nevertheless, when opponents improve their return, as in the second set, Sabalenka must rely on more aggressive shots from the baseline. This was a necessary adjustment, and she did it well with a decisive return in the key game. Another aspect worth mentioning is the scheduling. Sabalenka was placed in the morning session, something she admitted was a first at the US Open. Playing early can affect a player's circadian rhythm, but Sabalenka handled it well. Perhaps being on Louis Armstrong rather than Arthur Ashe was a deliberate move by organizers to reduce pressure on the top seed amid off-court issues. However, there is no denying that Sabalenka's presence is a major draw. The stands were packed, and the atmosphere was electric as the world No. 1 displayed her attacking style. Her commercial value is also at a high, with a surprising switch to Nike apparel just before the tournament. A third consecutive title would be a huge boost to her personal brand. Historically, matching Serena Williams is a great honor. Serena won three consecutive US Opens from 2026 to 2026, and no one has done it since. Sabalenka, with 16 straight wins and three recent finals, stands on the cusp of history. But she understands that statistics only matter when she crosses the finish line in the final. 'I don't think about those things. I just focus on each match at a time. Every opponent is tough, and I have to prepare well for each one,' Sabalenka said when asked about her place in history. Her answer shows strong mental resolve, something every champion needs. However, observers still question whether she can maintain high focus throughout the tournament, especially with potential distractions off the court. In this context, Sabalenka's fourth-round match will be a real test. She will face her next opponent, and if all goes as expected, she could meet Diana Shnaider in the quarter-finals. Shnaider, the 22-year-old Russian, is in very good form and has proven she can beat Sabalenka at a Grand Slam. That would be a major challenge to Sabalenka's ambitions. Overall, the win over Rakhimova is a step in the right direction for Sabalenka, but it also revealed some efficiency issues. To complete the hat-trick, she needs to improve her break point conversion and maintain her serving form – the key factor in her game. Additionally, she needs to quickly resolve off-court distractions to focus fully on her campaign in New York. With the current draw, Sabalenka remains the No. 1 title favorite. But tennis is a sport of surprises, and once you reach the later rounds, the pressure multiplies. Only time will tell whether she has the nerve to overcome all obstacles, or whether she will fall short at the gate of history. We will continue to closely follow Sabalenka's journey at this year's tournament. Her next match will be a significant test, not only technically but also mentally and under pressure. Let's wait and see.